Course · Law and Data
Legal Risk Quantification
Turn legal judgement into numbers a client can use: probabilities, ranges, expected cost, decision trees, simulation and risk registers.
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Clients ask two questions: what are our chances, and what could this cost us? The usual answer is “it depends.” This course teaches you to answer with honest numbers: a probability, a range, an expected cost, and a clear picture of how uncertain it all is. It works in any country, needs only spreadsheet-level maths, and every lab runs in your browser, on one running risk file for a fictional client before a capstone on a second.
The Curriculum
From “high, medium, low” to numbers→
Why loose words fail, and what one word does to a decision. Lab: Words-to-Numbers.
Estimating likelihood→
Base rates, adjusting for the facts, and being exactly as sure as you deserve to be. Labs: Base-Rate Adjuster and Calibration Game.
Estimating impact→
Fees, damages, interest and lost business, with low, likely and high values. Lab: Impact Builder.
Expected value and decision trees→
Settle or fight, and the break-even chance. Lab: Decision Tree Builder.
Uncertainty and simulation→
Why one number misleads, and how to show a range of outcomes. Lab: Simulator.
Risk registers and heat maps→
Scoring, ranking, and whether each fix pays for itself. Lab: Register Builder.
Communicating risk honestly→
The one-page memo, charts that do not mislead, and the limits of the numbers. Labs: Spot the Misleading Chart and Memo Studio.
Capstone: The Ceolwin case file→
A fresh client and four matters. Use every tool, then write the board memo.
What It Covers
“Built so you can give a client a number and say how far to trust it, instead of another “it depends.””
- Every lab runs in your browser, with invented figures and fictional parties.
- One running client file across the whole course, then a capstone on a fresh client.
- Honest about what numbers can and cannot tell you.
Included With All-Access · Or Buy It Alone
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Other Scrolls in This Chamber
Checking Legal AI Tools$15 →Test and supervise legal AI tools: planted errors, recall and precision, sampling, acceptance rates, extraction checks, playbooks and governance.
Contract Analytics for Lawyers$15 →Turn contracts into data: a clause library, cleaning, portfolio questions, renewals and notice deadlines, benchmarks and honest reading of results.
The Legal AI Lab$49 →Working tools for lawyers who use AI: a contract pipeline, verification, stress tests and more. The first exercise of each tool is free.Module 1 is free to try. Sign in, pass each module quiz and the course average, and your Certificate of Completion is emailed to you automatically. This course teaches a method with invented figures and fictional parties; it is not legal advice.
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Free to use in class. The free parts open for everyone, no account needed.